today. back to you. >> some headlines that registration for the commercial paper funding facility begins today and the purchases will begin on the 14th. we'll watch for that as well thanks, rick let's goet to the half and the domino >> thanks very much. our breaking news coverage continues. welcome to the show. front and center this hour stocks soaring on optimism about slowing death rates and cases from the coronavirus in key world hot spots including right here many new york our investment committee is here today. let's get a check on markets you can see we're just about near the highs of the session up

over 5%. the nasdaq up 367 points as well the russell 2000 small cap outpacing all of its large cap cousins. now at a level of 1,121. let's go through our investment economy so far today we'll start with shannon at bost bost boston private wealth. what has you excited about today's price action it's a considerable green day so far. >> i think this is a response to what happened last week. we saw really a great week in the markets and then last week we traded in sort of this sideways range i think we mentioned on friday's show that the most important data points would be from the virus. that's not necessarily because it's the only data point in

time if you think about this week, we have a couple of economic data releases we're prior to earning season. that's a bit of a vacuum or void in news right now. this positive news we received over the course of the week about the stemming of the virus as far as infections, icu, hospitalizations, all of that lends it to some stronger sentiment. i think we will continue over the course of this week to be very focused on what we're seeing on the virus side given the lack of catalysts from data perspecti perspective. >> the idea is the markets are trading in tandem lock step with these coronavirus headlines. is that the way people should be navr gaiting the market right now.

dm the problem we're making in terms of getting to the apex and getting through it, if god willing that's what happens over the next week or two, that's way more important than the stuff that former chair jants yellen was talk about this morning where this could be a 30% drop in -- 30% unemployment or this much drop in gdp it's not that those things are completely unimportant i think the market cares the market cares about where is the light at tend he end of the tunnel all the traders have done a great job reenforcing that idea that we're going to react on virus headlines first and foremost look at today, it's almost a reverse of what we saw on friday.

the consumer going to leave their house once again and buy something in a store i think that's the way we want to think about totally agree with shannon the progress against the virus is more important than looking at the traditional economic data that we used to. that will probably be the way we are for the foreseeable future >> is there anything about today's pricing action that gets you excited. is this a rally we can believe in. >> the most important thing is the improvement in terms of liquidity and functioning.

it takes us further away from the march 23rd low over last couple of weeks that sense of urgency the invest m community had to seek safety in the treasury market has lessened the week of march 9th through march 13th, the u.s. ten year treasury had an 80 basis point range. it's at 4 44 lastly, technicians will point towards the improvement in the construction of the s&p 500 the way it's trading you now have two price gaps to utilize as points of reference

you have a gap at 2300 to 2344 high yield market. we're seeing some offerings there. just overall the way the capital markets are trading it's a much calmer environment that kind of takes you away pr the perilous position you were trading near that 2200 low on march 23rd >> kind of those panic lows that we talked about back then maybe lead us to this idea maybe the worse is behind us i'm looking behind, mike wilson at morgan stanley talks about this notion that perhaps maybe a lot of the forced liquidation in

the these assets are behind us what kind stofcks would you be looking at assuming that the worst flush is now behind us >> couple of things. that's a self-fulfilling prophesy because of forced li liquidati liquidation. i'm not putting all that much credence into it my view has been that we have seen the bottom. i do believe we're not going to go up in straight line there's two things ignore the white house ignore the marketing

ignore the misinformation. you can even ignore anthony fauci even though he's phenomenal because cuomo is at ground zero on this. as new york goes, that's going to be the experience experience should be slightly better in the rest of the country because of the high population in the u.s. and the way it's dealt the market is up for two reasons. friday is traditionally been a risk off day we saw that again. there's some bounce back and because of cuomo's statements over the weekend that were very close and mortality rates have been improving that's why we're up today.

i think you want to go to growth we got the ten year numbers. other numbers on value value adviser to under perform it's going to be the solid companies. microsoft will continue to be a leader it's the big gap growth companies that will do well. >> he spoke about the update on mork's coronavirus situation let's get take a listen to what he is saying >> we're up to 8,658 new cases. overall, we have 130,000 people tested positive. 16,000 people in our hospital system 13,000 people have been discharged number of deaths are up once again. number of people we lost

number of new yorkers. 4,758, which is up from 159, but which is effectively flat for two days while none of this is good news, the flattening possible flattening is better than the increases that we have seen. new york is still the most impacted state new jersey is very real difficulty speaking with governor murphy from new jersey and anything we can do to get it, we will. michigan also. california has levelled off. louisiana is having a difficult time they are in our thoughts and prayers. total number of hospitalizations

are down the icu admissions are down and the daily intu babations are don those are all good signs and would suggest a possible flattening of the curve. the number disdhacharged is dow but that reflects the overall reduction in number pps the question we're look at now is what is is the curve p when cases stop increasing, then what happens? the projection models have a number of alternatives some suggest the curve goes up and drops precipitously. some suggest there's a slight pause at the top some suggest there's a longer pause at the top, which is effectively a plateau effect

they say any one of the three option, you study other countries. you've had a combination of the above. we are studying it as we used the projection models from day one to determine actually what we do. how do we set policy and program by following the data. jim, if you want to take a moment and speak about the projection models here, please >> great, thank you. as the governor said, we have been looking at projection models from the beginning to determine the size and scope and severity and the governor's mentioned this over his briefings. we have been working with many

organizations and using the data like imperial college, the institute for health metrics and evaluation some of the initial projections that we first saw at the beginning of this was, at least, 100, up to 110,000 beds for covid patients alone the peak would come at the end of april those were some of the earliest modelling for many organizations that it would be at the end of april. around 110,000 beds just for covid patients there were other models that we were tracking. one being lower at about 55,000 covid beds but peaking at the end of april we follow now that we have a pretty robust data set to go by for the last several weeks, the bottom line, purple line is sort of where we are tracking today

which suggests it's a little lower. the question is what could you do to lower those initial projections from 110,000 to 55,000 a lot of the activity wads we saw where the folks looking at these models say it was going. the number and the current data suggests that is exactly what's happening. it's not settled yet because we're going day by day and the numbers as the governor said has changed a lot. this could suggest we are at the apex or beginning to be at the apex at this moment.

>> thank you, jim. you see on this slide where we are now, right we could still see an increase so it is hopeful but it's also inconclusive and it still depends on what we do, right those models have all a coefficient of what we do and how successful we are at social distancing, et cetera. from our decision making point of view, it doesn't really matter if we have hit the plateau or not you have to do the same thing. if we are plateauing, we are

plateauing at a very high level. it's tremendous stress on the health care system this is a hospital system where we have our foot to the floor and the engine is at red line and you can't go any faster. by the way you can't stay at red line for any period of time. the staff can't work any harder and staying at this level is problematic. on relieving the pressure on the hospital system, which is

unsustainable at this rate, we're continuing on what we call our surge and flex program where we get all the hospitals on the line on a daily basis. they're all doing inventory and data sheets. they're all on the telephone and we're shifting among the hospitals, vent lailators, ppe equipment. that happens on a daily basis, that adjustment. also to relieve pressure on the hospital system, the javits coming online is a very big deal that's a relief valve for the entire down state system. ta transition is happening now

that is a covid center now started add non-covid. it's now a covid center. the majority of the military personnel will be coming in tomorrow and the next day. that javits center will be major relief valve the united states navy ship comfort, the original plan is that would come in for non-covid people the original plan is it would also be a relief valve on the hospitals but not for covid people that it would take all the non-covid patients, if you will, from the hospital system that was the plan. a by product of shutting everything down is you have fewer car accidents, crime rate is way down, fewer trauma cases.

there's not a large non-covid population in the hospitals. i'm going to ask the president to ship the comfort to non-covid to covid >> what you're listening to now is the daily press conference by new york governor, andrew cuomo with regard to the update on the latest figures for coronavirus the take away so far, the fact that the cases per day in terms of death and those confirmed with the virus appear to be plateauing or trending lower in some instances depending on which metrics you look at. that's leading the governor and his experts to say that perhaps we are at or near a peak with regard to the overall cases within new york.

the number has now shifted to the downside and that could be the reason why we're seeing continued moves in the upside in the market the dow is up about 1,150 poi s points the nasdaq up 390 points these represent the highs of the sessions they are accelerating their gains in part to some positive commentary from new york governor, andrew cuomo let's get back to our investment committee and found out how they feel about what they heard utilities leading higher up about 8% now.

>> i think it's value didated fa lot of the reasons the rest of the investment committee has been saying. josh saying we are following the disease first and perhaps the economy second with good news and encouraging news about the disease, as horrible still is the news is that it might not be getting any worse is certainly encouraging to markets markets are having a relief rally today feel good. we talk about the days that go up a good deal volatility is with us.

drop down 500 or 1,000 points. volatilities still here. i think investors continue to have to focus on fundamentals and strong balance sheets because while we may have some good news, the long term for investors is still going to be a kiechb kind of rocky road >> you bring up a very interesting point here joe we'll send this out to you we have a bevy of analyst calls because every one is asking their advisers whether or not the bottom is in

we continue to believe the bottoming process should take more time. the economy is shut down and the credit markets remain highly stressed despite the feds historic infinity qe also rbc capitals keeping an open mind about whether the s&p saw its coronavirus low. this is a very basic upside move there's a will the of strength behind it. how should you approach trading or investing in the next few days knowing that we're seeing this today but there's a prevailing interest in whether or not we test the years low again in the coming days and weeks.

>> this is going to take time. it's not going be your typical price correction of the last five to ten years where we go down 20% over the course of a short duration of days and quickly recover. this is going to be about time also understand this is about a proce process, a series of events that are needed to occur for the capital markets to find liquidity and a recovery once again. we're in the proprocess. the process is unfolding the focus as josh began the show talking about is on the health care numbers we're getting a flattening in europe, in new york. the process takes you to a point where the capital markets are going to want to hear, okay, how

are we going to reopen economies. what's going to be the process in reopening those economies that's where the relevancy is. be patient understand the environment and understand you're going to get constructive, positive developments that will contribute to this road to recovery >> all right shannon, i want to circle back to a note we hit on a little bit earlier. that's morgan stanley and mike wilson and his team looking at their universe of stocks as well a number of those names stand out just looking at some of those stocks they have a fresh buy, fresh money buy list that includes names like amazon, walt disney, humana, johnson and johnson, mastercard. microsoft, procter & gamble. thoeds a those are all part of that list.

what factors are you looking at? >> i mentioned last week that my belief that contrary to what we see historically when moving into a recessionary period we see out performance. it's a rotation from stocks that have out performed prior to a vegs recession to those that will perform post-recession i don't think it makes sense here look at the type of companies we like in december and january which are high quality businesses with strong balance streets, free cash flow, dividend payers and those that

can operate in a competitive environment that continues to grow and change. if you think about innovation, if you think about what disney has done with disney plus, if you think about amazon and their commitment in both cloud and being able to deliver e-commerce, better, faster, cheaper. those are the types of names you look at microsoft, market leaders. these are the stocks that three or four months ago people were still buying these stocks at much more expensive valuations now there's an opportunity, perhaps you're not bottom fishing them they haven't declined as much as some of the energy industrials the more cyclical stocks perhaps that's okay. we're not necessarily relying on those more cyclical names to pull us out of this particular environment. >> microsoft is key on that

list shannon made a case for that one. steve, you have been active in microsoft before what are you doing with microsoft given what we have seen in the market over the past few days >> i'm enjoying it now i added it during the decline. not added today. we recently switched over from another vendor to microsoft one drive. it fits with new microsoft products it's more efficient. it's less costly microsoft continues to hit on all cylinders and own the enterprise network this is really good time to upgrade your portfolio you may get another chance to do it here is how i see it playing out. i was thinking that we would have much longer recovery. over the weekend i came to the realization, i had this before in part that when we're done with all this, that shorts can take the economy a little longer

to get back up to speed. particularly the service areas where you will keep social distancing hopefully we'll have zero interest rates or near zero now the other element is whether it's going to be stimulus five or six, the hand off to fiscal stimulus is going to be powerful as we look to get the economy back on track. we don't get re-elections of presidents when you're in a recession, no less a depression. no one focus will be on stimulus plans. the government will continue to be generous. that will take the market, shorten the pace of recovery of the economy. i think if you have dips in the market again, i'm not buying today exception for very, very collectively by the dips. if we retest the lows, so what

buy the dips i think you'll do well >> say you're buying the dips. josh brourwn, let's bring kbroyk in here. it's maybe not that counter i u intutive given a day like today. all of these are bouncing tremendously by 10, 15, 20% or more what does that tell you about what's happening in market right now in. >> i don't know that it tells you anything specific because a lot of things that happened in the stock market aren't directly related to any fundamental change in a business maybe i'll concede the idea

there's something bigger happening. i would put that aside one of the things we're talking about is how long does it take earnings to rebound. do stocks have to do what earnings have done one of the most dangerous things you do is take the drop in earnings that every one agrees is coming and try to draw this li linear distinction that stocks have to drop and any one of them possible in first scenario, earnings fall less than stocks and we actually saw that during the great depression earnings only fell 74% stocks fell 90%. we're rooting against that outcome. earnings fell by 90% and the

stock market only fell 57% the point i'm trying to make is the earnings recovery could take a long time. could be five years before we get to 2019 earnings we don't know where multiples will settle out. just because you know that earnings will be horrendous for the rest of this year, that doesn't tell you what stock prices necessarily have to do. i want every one when they are hearing all of these superlatives, a total wipe out of 2020, that does not tell you where we'll be trading as we go through that process. >> there are factors beyond the headline earnings numbers. with that in mind, we know investment committee members are making moves in this market.

>> one of the things investors need to do is think about what they will sell this is an up day. i would say tell your speculative. sell this will be a longer process. it's everybody we're on the investment economy is suggesting this doesn't just have this v bott bottom thing it might endure, make sure that your portfolio can also endure you do that by trimming those things that have been speculative, that have questionable cash flow that have too much debt. they are rallying.

i think most of the government support will go to a lot of those main street banks. >> sure. >> it was a positioning reduction there. starbucks we added china has opened those stores. china has a huge growth opportunity for starbucks. down 35% with 13, 14, 15% earnings growth seemed like a good entry point we may nibble some more. it's a very sol i would kind of old school company they sell oreos and tang i like buying the solid balance sheet names with good management, god dash flow and a bit of a dividend that can be maintained i think you have to watch those

companies too. going to have to start cutting dividends and eliminating stock buy backs. it will be more of those >> interesting that you are a bit more bullish on the chinese thesis here. shannon you're making some moves as well. up with of them, a headliner name is a chinese e commerce giant plays into some of the trays you're making now. >> i would agree with michael. up with of the names we sold, royal caribbean. we really like this stock over the last couple of years we think the lifestyle experience in cruising has grown. we do think that cash flow will just be impaired to a point over the next 12 months there are better opportunities right now for our cash if you look at need for continued growth, this has been a stock that has seen its ups and downs over the last couple of years

we felt like this was a good entry point. it's exactly where we want to be situated >> all right airline stocks are seeing a pop today but down nearly 50% in the last month jamie baker will join us with his latest calls on that beaten up industry. that's coming up straight ahead on the show. g platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪

you see there are session highs for stocks let's get the latest headlines on the coronavirus >> hello, everybody. the new death toll just announced by new york's governor putting total u.s. deaths above 10,000 that's according to the johns hopkins count. new york schools and businesses to remain closed until the end of april american consumers on average see an almost 19% chance that they will lose their job in the next 12 months that is the highest rating ever seen in the new york feds survey the organizers of the masters are now hoping to hold the golf fournment in novembtour the pga has been pushed back to august 6th several other tournaments announced new dates. this year's british open was cancelled. the younitised kingdom's death

toll has passed the 5,000 mark but the daily toll has slowed for a second day confirmed cases are above 50,000 here is proof that adversity brings out the best in us. a young cancer patient who couldn't celebrate his last iv treat at the hospital got a surprise from his neighbors. instead of bell ringing, 6-year-old jackson got a practice raid by his house with dozens of cars, honking horns and people waving signs. we're in this together we'll get through this together. as always, if you want more on the coronavirus coverage go to cnbc.com back to you. >> i'm smiling because we need to hear more stories like this >> i'm looking for it. >> keep looking for them please. we always love to hear them. >> thank you very much for those updates. jpmorgan making a call and the airline saying we're growing increasingly convinced that industry recovery to 2019 levels will take a number of years. joining us now on the cnbc news line is the analyst who made

that call. jamie, what's the idea here? how long will it be before we see any hint of normalcy in this airline companies? >> we're thinking the industry will emerge small frer from this crisis and it could take until 2023 before the industry is the same size as it was last year. a lot fewer flights, fewer airplanes and fewer employees. for now our base case is next year, 2021 results and the overall size of the industry will be down around 2025% from what we witnessed last year. >> what do you think the lead time will be we know that business will be bad. the numbers will play out for years but that doesn't necessarily mean the stocks will go along with it in that front do you expect a turn around in these shares and if so which ones are best positioned the out perform? >> we do for some of them.

we upgraded alaska air to an overrate rating this morning we are joined delta and united those are our only three overweight rated names barely anybody is flying right now. we do believe that we'll start to see a gradual recovery this summer we think it's business travelers that will be the first to return at some point your boss will want you to come back in the office your boss will send you out on the road maybe not quite as aggressively as you were traveling pre-virus but we think companies will put employees back out on the road before families will have the same level of confidence >> those are potentially life blood. they bring the higher margin business to these airlines >> fares will remain low for quite some time. when you are starving, you'll eat anything

american, delta and united are sarveing for revenue at the moment we don't think they will lever any stone unturned in their hunt for ticket sales that makes it really tough for spill carriers, opportunistic skimmers like spirit theirs is a business model but during headier times, they do well that's the environment we're in now. it's tough to be a spill airline at the moment. >> jamie baker, senior airlines analyst. thank you for those thoughts let's trade it now we'll start with you joe, is there anything you want to do with these airlines or are you pretty much staying away from them at this point? >> i made my contribution to the airlines p and l by buying delta way too soon got out of it, lost money and

led the viewers who follow me in the wrong direction. the problem for the airlines is they will face a secular challenge. this is not a cyclical challenge. one of things that jamie said that i disagree with is i don't think corporations will rush to send employees back on planes. there's a lieblability issue in doing that i think they will be judicious in returning their employees to travel i question whether airlines will have the tail wind behind them that they had in procedures prior where they are able to rely on raising fees i don't see them able to do that we're talking about something that is completely secular in its nature we look at entire crisis of preservation

sg shannon, anything that makes you you want to alter your position. >> we're not adding to delta i think joe makes a point about secular head winds and the tail winds that increase the profitability for airlines over the last several years remain consistent as far as low jet fuel cost. however, if you think about the volume of travel, it's likely to decline and i worry about government oversight we sold our boeing position for that reason. frankly, i don't wareally want h government to be my partner. we would being lo looking for a appropriate exit thought >> let's get out to bob who is tracking the major moves in the et fr etf market what are you seeing? >> the spider has moved 15

points i want to point out receive some signs of this massive volatile is calming down a lot. we have seen volume declines in them rather noticeably in the last week or so. that's a good sign volatile tiity is low there's a vxx which is a etf for volatili volatility trading volume has been dropping the most beaten up in the recent three or four weeks are rallying the most retailers up 10% that's the xrt first positive day best day since march that's a good sign home construction is up 14%.

we'll be talking about a lot more going on here we'll talk to the man behind the first actively managed non-transparent etf he just started tracking and trading the last week or so. we'll dig into the action in the next 20 minutes. straight ahead, the top trends in technology coming out of the coronavirus crisis and the best stock ideas on how to play it. our experts will debate it in two minutes.

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welcome back everycore is out with their top trends today names on that list include salesforce, on the list include salesforce, apple, nvidia. josh, do those names make you feel somewhat tempted right now in this market >> so kind of reads like a list of large cap tech stocks which is fine. the one that intrigued meis docusign we are a customer and i actually disagree with what we were talking about in the prior segment with business cust mores rushing back to planes not a chance they put out a study saying they think as many as 30% of all u.s. jobs can be done remotely. and i suspect it could be more than that when you think about the type of people that normally travel for business. everything from sales to even

management so i do not foresee the airlines to count on business customers traveling to get to meetings and getting things signed physically is another example of that so just as a for instance, docusign we on board dozens of customers since the market peaked february 19th and can't see anyone in person and processing documents all the time they have an incredible technical trend. bounced off the it can call 200 day when the market at the worse. the buyers came rushing in that's exactly where they should have i really like this chart i'm going to do some more work on the company you have to pay up for companies literally undisturbed and benefitting from the mayhem out there in the real economy. >> a possible secular trend shifting and taking place.

thanks very much for that one. our experts are ready to answer your questions that's coming up next. to reach out to us, go to cnbc.com/halftime or tweet at us we're back after this break. life isn't a straight line.

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breaking news coverage continues tonight on cnbc with a special report "markets in turmoil. that's tonight 7:00 p.m. eastern time here on cnbc. well, the traders are answering your questions first up we have weiss for weiss. in light of the turmoil in the markets, what is a retail investor to do stocks, bonds, cash or gold? thanks, be safe. steve? >> well, look. it always pays i guess to have a diversified portfolio. depends on your age, also. i'm much more heavily weighted to equities. i don't see the upside in bonds. i think there will be a money losing proposition getting out of this given where rates are. if you're a retail investors, ride the wave. it is going to up, down. too late to sell right now it's too late to buy just be patient and follow a plan that you set. >> all right next up for josh brown from christian in oklahoma.

i've heard josh and a few other traders deposition traders mentioning the debt and bond market. >> i don't know if i agree with a blanket statement. we know the blow-ups are coming. we don't know how much the government will help out so we use bonds very specifically in the client portfolios as the ballist to give you dry powder to rebalance you have something left to do that with. a 60/40 portfolio down 20% at the bottom of the stock market and happened 3 times in history. so i think that was a unique opportunity for firms like mine to say to clients, this is when we make that switch. and so that's why you're investing in bonds not necessarily for upside weiss is right upside is limited. you can pretty much say over ten

years on a treasury pretty much expect annually to make the coupon it is a tight relationship don't get excited there. >> joe from jenny in las vegas, joe talks about buying in the credit markets could you tell me how to do so thank you. >> that's basically similar question to what josh just said. i'm not a believer in doing it yourself pay the 50, 100 basis points work with josh and mine for opportunity to buy quality credit. >> all right shannon from tina in rochester hills, michigan. can you explain raytheon technologies >> sure. it is a combination of raytheon and united technologies combining defense with traditional commercial exposure. the one cautionary note that i would make here is don't be surprised if there's hiccups here as analysts and investors expecting synergies from the

mergers and may be less than expected. >> michael, what do you think about this market? >> increasing quality in your portfolio. names of pepsi, johnson & johnson and microsoft are good cores. wait for a pullback and sell your speculative stuff now this takes a while hang in there. we'll get through. >> for sure. thanks very much, everybody. kelly evans picks up the breaking news coverage right now. thank you, dom hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. we have a massive rally on wall street today i'm not used to saying rally the number of coronavirus cases in the u.s. appeared to slow down a little bit but the dow up 1200 back above 22,000, nearly 6% increase right now and similar gains of the s&p 500 and the nasdaq today now we did move to session highs after new york's governo